India has managed high government debt-to-GDP, a slowing domestic revenue engine, lower household savings and a more hostile geopolitical environment separately in the past. But together, they threaten to undo the growth narrative on which today's optimism rests, warns Debashis Basu.
Fears around artificial intelligence (AI) sparked a global selloff in information technology (IT) stocks, dragging down domestic software shares and prompting the heaviest foreign portfolio investor (FPI) outflows since the second half of July 2025.
'The next two to three weeks will not be decided in Washington.' 'They will be decided in Tehran, in whatever calculation Iran makes about the costs of continued resistance against the costs of appearing to have yielded.'
The purge in Washington does not pause the war. Strikes continue, Hormuz remains closed, and Brent crude is still dancing around $109 a barrel. For India, the command chaos in the Pentagon is another layer of uncertainty piled on five weeks of conflict that was already straining every buffer Delhi has.
Stock markets closed higher for the second straight session on Tuesday, driven by gains in bank, IT and capital goods shares.
The United States, which entered this war in expectation of a short, sharp win along the Venezuela model, is now preparing for deeper involvement in a conflict it does not fully control, without the allies it typically relies on, against an adversary that is not behaving as expected, in a global environment that is already absorbing economic shock. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
Domestic PMI data, US Federal Reserve meeting minutes and the progress on India-US trade deal negotiations are likely to influence movement in the equity market in the week ahead, according to analysts. Moreover, the trading activity of foreign investors would also influence the equity market trends.
Country's startups are carving a unique path by prioritising local, application-led innovation over the global pursuit of scale.
'It is too early to conclude that there will be a bloodbath, that there will be no jobs, and that there will be civil unrest.' 'Let's calm down.' 'AI is a tool, it is not a weapon, it is not a virus.'
India's $280-billion IT industry heads into 2026, balancing visa-related headwinds and global trade uncertainty against its biggest-ever push into artificial intelligence and the rapid expansion of global capability centres (GCCs). Heightened scrutiny of the US H-1B visa programme - including a proposed $100,000 fee for new visas and concerns over a potential 25 per cent outsourcing tax - has complicated cross-border delivery for Indian firms, even as companies accelerate efforts to reduce reliance on onsite staffing.
If the conflict continues for a prolonged period, State-run oil companies may have to review retail fuel prices accordingly.
Foreign investors fled Indian equities in 2025 at a scale never seen before, pulling out a record Rs 1.6 lakh crore (USD 18 billion) as volatile currency movements, global trade tensions, especially potential US tariffs, and stretched valuations eroded risk appetite, though flows are expected to turn sustainably positive in 2026.
Network scale seen as central to tapping smaller markets.
The government's Budget announcements providing tax holiday for data centres, setting up of city economic regions (CERs) and funding to improve infrastructure in Tier-II and -III cities may give an indirect boost to India's realty sector, said industry executives.
Two chartered accountants have been arrested by the Enforcement Directorate in connection with a money laundering case linked to a cyber fraud involving Rs 641 crore.
Textiles, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, engineering goods, gems and jewellery exports will receive a boost from the free trade agreement between India and the 27-nation European Union, according to exporters.
Domestic equities surged on Tuesday, posting their best single-day gains in more than eight months after a long-awaited trade deal between India and the US. The deal, which lowered tariffs on Indian goods to 18 per cent from 50 per cent, significantly improved investor sentiment and lifted a key overhang for the market.
'MNCs now recognise India's capacity for innovation and its pivotal role in substantive contributions to global product development.'
The reason is because there aren't any screens for a large mass of Indians.
Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty closed lower in a highly volatile trade on Thursday amid relentless foreign fund outflows and selling in blue-chip ICICI Bank. Falling for the second day in a row, the 30-share BSE Sensex declined 148.14 points or 0.18 per cent to settle at 83,311.01.
Israel and the United States had a plan. Iran punched back. And now the Gulf is reeling, the world is beginning to feel the pain and, as on date, no one in Washington or Tel Aviv appears willing to admit that the punch has landed, notes Prem Panicker, continuing his must-read blog on the war in the Middle East.
'We operate in an economy that is structurally positioned for long-term growth. As market levels rise over time, our AUM grows in line.'
IT services market in the country grew at a slower pace of 7.4 per cent to Rs 22,826.2 crore ($ 3.76 billion) in the January-June 2014 period, mainly due to political and economic uncertainty amid Lok Sabha polls, research firm IDC said.
'Don't look at Russia only as a place to earn quickly and then leave.' 'Try to build experience in serious companies, skills and certifications that will serve you anywhere in the world.'
The deal shifts the US posture towards India from hostile to neutral, and that matters for growth, points out T T Ram Mohan.
The continued MF buying has pushed the equity holding of MFs to over Rs 50 trillion for the first time.
The Indian services sector growth touched an 11 month high in July, supported by a pickup in new exports orders and sharp rise in overall sales, a monthly survey said on Tuesday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Services PMI Business Activity Index was at 60.5 in July, little-changed from 60.4 in June, and the rate of expansion was the best seen since August 2024.
'It has got to be the biggest error in aviation. If it is the biggest error, then all those individuals in positions of power should be removed because they have caused the biggest meltdown in Indian aviation history.'
The Indian services sector growth touched a ten-month high in June aided by robust expansion in international sales and job creation, amid positive demand trends and ongoing improvement in sales, a monthly survey said on Thursday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Services PMI Business Activity Index rose from 58.8 in May to 60.4 in June, driven by sharp upturn in new business orders.
Trading sentiment in the equity market will be guided by macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and quarterly earnings from IT major TCS this week, analysts said. Stock markets would also be tracking trading activity of foreign investors who remained net sellers of Indian equities in September.
Banks are depending more heavily on the market for certificates of deposit (CDs), whose worth climbed to a record Rs 5.75 trillion in the fortnight to January 15, owing to deposit tightness in the system.
India is the second-most-preferred destination among chief executive officers planning international investments - up from the fifth spot last year, according to PwC's 29th Annual Global CEO Survey released on Tuesday. The United States is their first choice.
Led by the country's biggest lender State Bank of India (SBI), public sector banks logged a record cumulative profit of Rs 52,603 crore in the third quarter of the current fiscal, reflecting an 18 per cent year-on-year growth.
What we are watching is something different: A fog manufactured and maintained by the people who started the war, so that the question of why it was started never has to be answered, observes Prem Panicker in his must read blog on the war in the Middle East.
Investors and startup executives are calling for extending the period for an entity to be recognised as a startup from 10 to 15 years for deep-tech companies.
Eighteen new-age technology firms went public during the year, a near triple increase from the five firms that debuted in 2023 and 38 per cent more than 2024's tally of 13.
Bajaj Finserv on Thursday said it has completed the acquisition of Allianz SE's stake in Bajaj General Insurance and Bajaj Life Insurance, worth Rs 12,190 crore and Rs 9,200 crore, respectively. Bajaj Finserv, along with Bajaj Holdings & Investment and Jamnalal Sons, acquired the foreign insurer's 23 per cent stake in the businesses, marking the largest transaction in the Indian insurance sector.
Usually, in the western view, corporate success is attributed to efficiency, organisational structure, and scale. R Gopalakrishnan and Harish Bhat argue that philosophy, culture, and the transmission of values are more important for sustaining growth and profitability of an enterprise over a period of time.
A 500 per cent tariff would effectively shut out India's goods and services exports to the US.
Equity markets will keenly track outcome of the US Federal Reserve policy meeting this week amid heightened expectations of an interest rate cut along with WPI inflation data, analysts said. Any further development on the USndia trade front would also drive trends in the equity market, experts said.
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